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July 23, 2021 Economic and Market Report –Week-ended July 23, 2021

Global Economy The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) elected to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its July policy meeting. The Council noted that the decision was hinged on the need to push inflation higher and mitigate the risk posed by the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic on […]

July 2021: MPC to Hold Rates Steady to Support Economic Recovery

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to hold its fourth meeting of the year on the 26th and 27th of July 2021. We expect the Committee to assess global and domestic macroeconomic and financial market developments and provide forward guidance on the timing of a change in monetary policy stance. Reopening of Economy, Base […]

July 16, 2021 Headline Inflation Sustains Deceleration

Nigeria’s headline inflation moderated by 18bps to 17.75% y/y in June 2021 (May: 17.93% y/y) – the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest since February 2021 (17.33% y/y). The outturn is 8bps lower than Cordros’ estimate (17.83% y/y) and 5bps less than Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (17.80% y/y), with the deviation coming from […]

July 3, 2021 Economic and Market Report – Week-ended July 02, 2021

Global Economy In our recently published H2-21 Global macroeconomic outlook (see report: Navigating the Uneven Path of Recovery), we reviewed global macroeconomic activities in H1-21 and discussed our views on what we expect in the second half of the year. The global economy appears to be decoupling itself from the havoc caused by the pandemic […]

Surging Third Wave of COVID: Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Hanging in the Balance?

This week, we picked interest in a report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday (28th June 2021) titled “Sub-Saharan Africa: We Need to Act Now”, as the issue raised may significantly affect the pace of Nigeria’s economic recovery if necessary measures are not taken. According to the report, the level of increase […]

H2-21 Outlook –Navigating the Uneven Path of Recovery

After a tumultuous year of extreme volatility, a relative calmness has been restored to the financial market. While the positive sentiments that pervaded the equities market in H2-20 extended into the early part of the year, it was short-lived as earlier-than-anticipated reversal in the yields on fixed income (FI) instruments dampened appetite for stocks. In […]

GDP growth projected at 4.2% in 2022–FG

The Federal Government has projected a rise to 4.2 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022. Mrs Zainab Ahmed, Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning said this at the Public Consultation on the Draft 2022 to 2024 Medium Term Fiscal Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTFF/FSP) on Thursday. Ahmed said […]

Public Debt: Recent Currency Devaluation to Heighten Debt-Service Burden

The Q1:2021 Public Debt Stock report published by the NBS this week showed a minuscule 0.6% q/q increase in Nigeria’s total debt profile to ₦33.1tn from ₦32.9tn as at end of 2020. We attribute the slow increase in the debt figure in Q1:2021 to the late approval of the borrowing plan of ₦4.6tn (domestic ₦2.3tn; […]

June 12, 2021 Q1:2021 Foreign Trade Statistics Report: Nigeria’s Woes Deepen on Lower-than-Expected Crude Oil Earnings

Fresh data emerged this week on the worrisome state of Nigeria’s merchandise trade position with the rest of the world. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria recorded a Goods trade deficit of ₦3.9tn in Q1:2021 (2.6% of GDP), the highest in more than twelve successive quarters. This was jointly driven by a […]

Economic and Market Report – Week-ended June 11, 2021

Global economy According to the latest data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation rose by 40bps to 1.3% y/y in May (April: 0.9% y/y) – the highest since September 2020 (1.7% y/y). We highlight that the increase in the headline index was due to a faster price increase in the […]

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