Nigeria failed to meet its crude oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day approved by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the first month of 2026, extending its streak of underperformance to six consecutive months.
According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 million barrels of crude oil per day in January 2026. Specifically, output rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd in January, representing an increase of about 38,000 barrels per day.
Despite the marginal improvement, production remained below the 1.5 mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month the country has missed its OPEC target, spanning August 2025 to January 2026.
Crude oil output had dipped in December 2025 by 14,000 barrels per day, despite government efforts to ramp up production. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that production fell from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December, instead of rising to meet the OPEC quota.
In 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. Year-on-year, crude production declined by over 80,000 barrels per day. Nigeria opened 2025 strongly, producing 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC allocation.
Output, however, slipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened further in March, when production averaged 1.40 mbpd, representing one of the widest shortfalls of the year.
