Global Economy The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) elected to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its July policy meeting. The Council noted that the decision was hinged on the need to push inflation higher and mitigate the risk posed by the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic on […]

Nigeria’s headline inflation moderated by 18bps to 17.75% y/y in June 2021 (May: 17.93% y/y) – the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest since February 2021 (17.33% y/y). The outturn is 8bps lower than Cordros’ estimate (17.83% y/y) and 5bps less than Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (17.80% y/y), with the deviation coming from […]

This week, we provide perspective on some of the potential economic benefits and downside risks that can accompany the recently passed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) 2020 by the National Assembly (NASS). For context, the PIB is an omnibus legislation, designed to reposition the Nigerian oil & gas industry through far-reaching reforms in four (4) key […]

The World Bank estimates that the collapse of select ecosystem services provided by nature can result in a decline in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.7 trillion dollars annually by 2030. The bank, in a statement in Washington on Friday, said this was according to a newly published report, adding that Sub-Saharan Africa and […]

Global Economy In our recently published H2-21 Global macroeconomic outlook (see report: Navigating the Uneven Path of Recovery), we reviewed global macroeconomic activities in H1-21 and discussed our views on what we expect in the second half of the year. The global economy appears to be decoupling itself from the havoc caused by the pandemic […]

This week, we picked interest in a report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday (28th June 2021) titled “Sub-Saharan Africa: We Need to Act Now”, as the issue raised may significantly affect the pace of Nigeria’s economic recovery if necessary measures are not taken. According to the report, the level of increase […]

After a tumultuous year of extreme volatility, a relative calmness has been restored to the financial market. While the positive sentiments that pervaded the equities market in H2-20 extended into the early part of the year, it was short-lived as earlier-than-anticipated reversal in the yields on fixed income (FI) instruments dampened appetite for stocks. In […]

The Federal Government has projected a rise to 4.2 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022. Mrs Zainab Ahmed, Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning said this at the Public Consultation on the Draft 2022 to 2024 Medium Term Fiscal Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTFF/FSP) on Thursday. Ahmed said […]

The Q1:2021 Public Debt Stock report published by the NBS this week showed a minuscule 0.6% q/q increase in Nigeria’s total debt profile to ₦33.1tn from ₦32.9tn as at end of 2020. We attribute the slow increase in the debt figure in Q1:2021 to the late approval of the borrowing plan of ₦4.6tn (domestic ₦2.3tn; […]

Fresh data emerged this week on the worrisome state of Nigeria’s merchandise trade position with the rest of the world. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria recorded a Goods trade deficit of ₦3.9tn in Q1:2021 (2.6% of GDP), the highest in more than twelve successive quarters. This was jointly driven by a […]