According to recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), In March 2024, the headline inflation rate increased to 33.20% relative to the February 2024 headline inflation rate which was 31.70%. Looking at the movement, the March 2024 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 1.50% points when compared to the February 2024 headline inflation rate.
On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.16% points higher compared to the rate recorded in March 2023, which was 22.04%. This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in the month of March 2024 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., March 2023).
Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2024 was 3.02%, which was 0.10% lower than the rate recorded in February 2024 (3.12%). This means that in the month of March 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level is less than the rate of increase in the average price level in February 2024.
Afrinvest’s Report on the Development…
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate nudged higher to 33.2% y/y in March 2024 from 31.7% y/y in the previous month. Compared to the same period in 2023, the headline index print represents an 11.2ppts increase in the general price level in the last twelve months (LTM) – a more than four-fold growth when compared to real output expansion in the economy (Real GDP grew by 2.7% in the LTM).
Looking at the component members of the headline reading, we noted that the food inflation rate ascended to 40.0% y/y (February: 37.9%). On a m/m basis, the food inflation sub-index printed at 3.6%, reflecting a slower growth of 0.2ppts compared to the rate recorded in the prior month (3.8%). We linked the modest decline in the m/m food print to a combination of interventions at different levels of government (e.g, FG dolled out 42,000MT of grains across the federation while some states such as Lagos, subsidised the price of selected food items in major markets by about 25.0%).
Likewise, the core inflation sub-component nudged higher by 6.3ppts to 25.9% y/y. On a m/m basis, the core inflation rate printed at 2.5%, up 0.4ppts from 2.2% in the prior month. This was driven by price increases in bus fares, rentals, medical fees, and pharmaceutical products.
