Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the domestic economy sustained its positive growth momentum in Q2-24, as the real GDP grew by 3.19% y/y (Q1-24: +2.98% y/y | Q2-23: +2.51% y/y). The growth outturn is 61bps and 1bp lower than Cordros’ (+3.80% y/y) and Bloomberg’s median consensus (+3.20% y/y) estimates, respectively.
According to the GDP breakdown, the oil sector rose sharply by 10.15% y/y in Q2-24 (Q1-24: +5.70% y/y | Q2-23: -13.43% y/y) in line with the improvement in crude oil production. Specifically, average crude oil production rose by 15.6% y/y to 1.41 mb/d in Q2-24, compared to the 1.22 mb/d in Q2-23, although this was lower than the 1.57 mb/d recorded in Q1-24. Thus, the oil sector contributed 5.70% to the total GDP (Q1-24: 6.38%) during the review period.
At the same time, the non-oil sector remained positive, growing by 2.80% y/y in Q2-24 (Q1-24: +2.80% y/y). Accordingly, the non-oil sector contributed 94.30% to the total GDP (vs 93.62% in Q1-24).
Analysing the breakdown of three of the most significant components of the GDP: Agriculture grew stronger by 1.41% y/y (Q1-24: +0.18% y/y), Industries came in higher by 3.53% y/y (Q1-24: +2.19% y/y); while Services moderated to 3.79% y/y (Q1-24: +4.32% y/y).
In terms of contributions, Services, Agriculture, and Industries had a total of 58.76%, 22.61% and 18.62% of overall output growth, respectively.
Cordros
