Global Brewery Market Overview
In 2024, global brewery industry sales volume declined marginally for the second consecutive year, settling at 1.78 million hectolitres. This was primarily due to sluggish global demand and persistently high inflation. Despite volume pressures, industry-wide revenue – approximated by the performance of major regulated players – rose by 3.3% year-on-year (y/y) to $617.7bn, as estimated by Statista.
Performance across our global coverage universe was mixed. Ab-InBev, Kirin Holdings, and Carlsberg posted y/y revenue growth of 0.7%, 14.4%, and 1.9% respectively, with corresponding toplines of $59.8bn, $16.5bn, and $10.5bn. Conversely, Heineken and Diageo experienced y/y revenue declines of 1.2% and 1.3%, closing at $40.2bn and $27.9bn, respectively.
Overall, the combined Profit After Tax (PAT) for the five global brewers grew significantly by 80.4% y/y to $14.2bn. This was driven mainly by Carlsberg and Ab-InBev, whose PAT rose by 125.8% and 29.0% to $1.4bn and $6.9bn respectively. In contrast, Heineken, Kirin Holdings, and Diageo saw PAT contractions of 57.6%, 40.4%, and 7.0% to $1.1bn, $0.6bn, and $4.2bn, respectively.
Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate that global brewery performance will be influenced by several key trends: (i) the deepening of premiumisation strategies for flagship brands, (ii) Innovation tailored to Gen-Z preferences, (iii) supply chain decarbonisation, (iv) strategic mergers, acquisitions, and market exit driven by profitability outlooks. These trends are explored in detail in the global industry analysis section.
Meanwhile, data from Oxford Economics indicates that the brewery industry’s contribution to global GDP reached $878.0bn in 2023 – equivalent to $1 out of every $119 of global output. The industry also supported an estimated 32.0m jobs, generated $10.6bn in agricultural output, and contributed $376.0bn in direct and indirect tax revenue. However, these gains face potential risks from rising protectionist policies and trade tensions among major economies.
Domestic Brewery Market Overview
In 2024, Nigeria’s brewery industry revenue significantly outperformed our base-case forecast, rising by 39.2% to ₦1.9tn. This was largely driven by inflation-induced price adjustments across product lines and a marked improvement in consumer purchasing power following the 133.5% increase in the national minimum wage to ₦70,000 in Q3.
The industry experienced a strong close to the year, with revenue in Q4:2024 rising 42.6% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) to ₦611.0bn – the highest quarterly revenue in 2024 and the sharpest quarterly growth. A key enabler was the resurgence of year-end social events, particularly in Lagos, where the “Detty-December” festivities contributed an estimated ₦111.5bn (approximately, $71.6m) to tourism and entertainment spend, with brewery products benefitting as derived demand.
Despite closing the year with a second consecutive annual loss (Loss Before Tax: -₦364.8bn), Q4 marked a notable turnaround. For the first time since Q1:2022, all coverage companies – Nigerian Breweries Plc (NB), Guinness Nigeria Plc (GUINNESS), International Breweries Plc (INTBREW), and Champion Breweries Plc (CHAMPION) – reported positive quarterly earnings, amounting to ₦7.4bn, with the momentum sustained into Q1:2025 (PAT rebounded by 148.2% y/y to 81.9bn).
That said, the industry continued to face significant challenges in 2024. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) rose faster than revenue by 14.4 percentage points, reaching ₦1.3tn. This was largely due to macroeconomic headwinds, including a 46.2% currency depreciation (₦1,625.00/$ by year-end) and higher petrol prices – averaging ₦939.5/litre in December after peaking at ₦1,184.83/litre in May. These cost pressures also drove up Operating Expenses (OPEX) by 42.3% to ₦564.3 billion, Foreign Exchange (FX) losses by 118.1% to -₦412.6bn, and Finance Costs by 113.7% to ₦255.1bn.
Looking forward, we project a return to profitability in 2025 for the domestic industry, with a base-case Profit Before Tax (PBT) estimate of ₦215.3bn. This outlook is underpinned by a mix of favourable external conditions (e.g., macroeconomic stabilization and corporate income tax adjustments) and internal initiatives such as capital injections, merger and acquisition synergies, and product resizing strategies.
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