Global goods trade picked up pace in the first quarter of 2025 as importers rushed to stockpile goods ahead of expected tariff increases, the World Trade Organisation said in its latest report.
The WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer rose to 103.5, up from 102.8 in March. The reading indicates that merchandise trade volumes remained above recent trends.
However, the trade body warned that the momentum might not last, pointing to a drop in new export orders, which could signal weaker trade growth in the coming months.
“While the barometer suggests strong trade activity in early 2025, this is largely due to frontloading by businesses that are worried about rising tariffs,” the WTO said in an email.
“The decline in forward-looking indicators such as new export orders reflects concerns about future demand and growing policy uncertainty.”
The Goods Trade Barometer serves as a real-time measure of world trade conditions, tracking the movement of goods such as vehicles, electronics, and raw materials. A reading above 100 indicates stronger-than-trend trade growth, while a reading below that level suggests a slowdown.
According to the WTO, the recent surge in trade was driven mainly by increased shipping and air freight activity.
