A month after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, global markets for the supply of crude oil, refined products and liquefied natural gas are already in the second-worst possible scenario.
Everything hinges on the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint, which normally carries around 20% of global crude, products and LNG, is still effectively closed to most shipping, leaving energy markets dangerously exposed.
Under those conditions, claims by Washington or Israel that they are somehow winning the war against Iran are largely meaningless.
It may well be true that the U.S. and Israeli air campaign has decapitated Iran’s leadership and degraded key military capabilities. But the reality is that most tankers still cannot transit the Strait of Hormuz safely, while Iran has demonstrated a clear ability to strike energy and other critical infrastructure across the Gulf. That leaves Tehran shaping the narrative – and, more importantly, holding the global economy to ransom at the same time.
