The dollar fell as investors walked back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election after the latest polls indicated no clear advantage for him.
Oil rose after OPEC+ delayed an output hike. An index of the greenback dropped the most in over two months, with the US currency down against major peers such as the yen, the euro and the Australian dollar. Treasury futures rose.
The moves came after a poll by the Des Moines Register showed Kamala Harris with a 47%-44% lead in Iowa — a state Trump has won in each of his prior elections. One element of the so-called Trump trade favors higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
Still, other surveys show the two candidates poised for a photo finish, with voters narrowly split both nationally and across the pivotal swing states.
The dollar gauge and 10-year Treasury yields both had reached their highest since July in recent weeks, after investors ramped up wagers on a second term for Trump.
There’s concern that his support for looser fiscal policy and steep tariffs will deepen the federal deficit and fuel inflation, undermining Treasuries.
