Global Economy
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), GDP growth in the United Kingdom slowed for the second consecutive quarter, growing by 0.1% q/q in Q3-25 (Q2-25: +0.3% q/q) – settling below market expectations of 0.2% q/q. The slower growth reflects a moderation in growth across the services and construction sectors, while the production sector sustained contraction.
Specifically, the decline in production (-0.50% q/q vs Q2-25: -0.80% q/q) output can be attributed to a fall in manufacturing output —primarily linked to a major cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover that pushed car production to a historic low—and a contraction in mining and quarrying. Conversely, services output increased but at a slower pace (+0.20% q/q vs Q2-25: +0.40% q/q), driven by the decline in professional, scientific and technical activities, despite increased activities in the arts, entertainment and recreation subsectors.
Construction output (+0.1% y/y vs Q2-25: +1.0% y/y) rose modestly, reflecting a contraction in new works, which were partly offset by increases in repair and maintenance activities. On a year-on-year basis, growth expanded to 1.3% y/y in Q3-25 (Q2-25: +1.2% y/y), on the back of higher growth in the services and construction sectors.
Looking ahead, although festive-induced spending may offer a temporary lift to activity, particularly in Q4-25, overall growth is expected to remain subdued over the near to medium term as weak business confidence, still tight financial conditions, elevated inflation, and high taxes continue to weigh on economic activities.
Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that consumer prices in China rose for the first time since June (+0.1%) by +0.2% y/y in October. This is a rebound from September’s deflation print of 0.3% y/y and above market expectations of 0.0% y/y. More specifically, non-food inflation rose at a faster pace (+0.9% y/y vs September: +0.7% y/y), supported by the growth of consumer trade-in schemes and stronger Golden Week holiday spending, both of which strengthened domestic demand. At the same time, core inflation inched higher to +1.2% y/y (September: +1.0% y/y) – the highest level in 20 months – underpinned by government-led measures to encourage domestic consumption.
However, food prices (-2.9% y/y vs September: -4.4%) remained in the negative territory, though it declined at a slower pace compared to the previous month, partly linked to food oversupply (particularly pork, dairy & eggs) and still fragile consumption. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose to a three-month high (+0.2% m/m vs September: +0.1% m/m), signalling a stabilizing trend in consumer prices. Looking ahead, October’s positive inflation reading suggests that policy measures to stimulate demand are beginning to gain traction, but it remains too early to conclude that deflationary pressures have fully subsided.
Persistently soft consumer demand, alongside still-cautious monetary policy—with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) holding rates steady for five consecutive months—continues to anchor the risk of a return to mild deflation.
Global Market
Global equities traded positively this week as investors welcomed the end of the historic US government shutdown, which offset lingering concerns about elevated AI and tech valuations. At the time of writing, US equities (DJIA: +1.0%; S&P 500: +0.1%) were on track to close the week higher after the Senate approved an initial funding bill and President Trump signed the legislation formally ending the longest government shutdown in US history.
This development outweighed uncertainty surrounding the prospect of an additional Federal Reserve rate cut in December and concerns around lofty AI and tech valuations. European equities (STOXX 600: +2.8%; FTSE 100: +1.3%) also advanced, supported by the stronger global tone and rising expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in December, following an uptick in the UK’s unemployment. Asian equities (Nikkei 225: +0.2%; SSE: +0.1%) also closed higher, mirroring the improved global sentiment.
The region’s performance was further supported by Chinese authorities’ announcement of plans to introduce a comprehensive strategy aimed at accelerating growth in the new-energy battery sector and strengthening related infrastructure. Finally, the MSCI Emerging and Frontier Markets (MSCI EM: +2.0%; MSCI FM: +1.2%) indices advanced, reflecting gains in India (+1.3%) and Vietnam (+2.2%), respectively.
Domestic Economy
According to the CBN, private sector activity remained firmly in expansionary territory for the tenth consecutive month. The Composite PMI increased to 55.4 points in October (September: 54.0 points), reflecting stronger momentum across agriculture, industry, and services sectors. The Industry PMI rose to 54.2 points (September: 51.4 points), marking a second month of improvement, supported by firmer consumer demand that lifted raw material purchases, output and employment.
Similarly, the Services PMI climbed to 55.6 points (September: 54.7 points), extending its nine-month expansion on the back of stronger demand, which in turn bolstered output and activity across key subsectors such as wholesale and retail trade, utilities, educational services, motion pictures, cinema, sound recording & music production, and health care & social assistance. The Agriculture PMI also strengthened, rising to 55.7 points (September: 54.8 points), driven by the ongoing main harvest, which supported improvements in overall farming activity, inventories and employment.
Looking ahead, private sector conditions are expected to remain expansionary, supported by gradually improving macroeconomic fundamentals, including naira appreciation and easing inflationary pressures. In addition, the recent dovish shift in monetary policy is likely to ease tight financing conditions over time, reinforcing broader economic activity in the near term.
Based on data obtained from the National Communications Commission (NCC), Nigeria’s active telephony subscribers increased moderately by 1.2% m/m to 173.54 million in September (August: 171.57 million). The improvement primarily mirrors the ongoing SIM reactivation drive led by major network operators, notably MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria, as efforts to restore previously deactivated lines under the NIN-SIM linkage policy continue to gain traction. The total number of internet subscribers also improved slightly, rising by 0.4% m/m to 140.95 million (August: 140.33 million), supported by higher data service uptake amid growing digital adoption.
On a year-on-year basis, average telephony and internet subscriptions increased by 12.0% and 6.1%, respectively, indicating a rebound in subscriber activity and network connectivity following the successful completion of the NIN-SIM linkage exercise, which had previously disrupted subscriber acquisition and retention. The market structure remains highly concentrated, with MTN Nigeria maintaining its dominant position, holding a 52.1% market share (90.34 million subscribers), significantly ahead of Airtel Nigeria at 33.7% (58.47 million).
Globacom held a modest 12.3% share (21.39 million), while 9mobile (now T2 mobile) continued to lag significantly, accounting for just 1.8% (3.11 million) of total subscriptions. Looking ahead, we anticipate that ongoing SIM reactivation efforts, coupled with reduced regulatory pressures and continued network expansion, will sustain the recovery in the subscriber base. MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria are expected to drive this growth, leveraging their strong market presence, brand recognition, and extensive distribution networks.
Capital Markets: Equities
The domestic bourse ended the week on a negative note, following a sharp early-week downturn driven by investor apathy toward the proposed CGT reform. Although subsequent clarification from authorities helped temper the losses in the latter part of the week, the rebound was insufficient to push the market into positive territory. As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 1.7% w/w to 147,013.59 points, pressured by selloffs in DANGCEM (-10.0%), BUACEMENT (-6.7%), and STANBIC (-6.5%).
Consequently, the month-to-date and year-to-date returns settled lower at -4.6% and +42.8%, respectively. On market activity, trading volume and value increased by 104.9% w/w and 46.2% w/w, respectively. Meanwhile, sectoral performance was mixed, as the Insurance (+2.4%), Banking (+1.3%), and Consumer Goods (+0.5%) indices closed higher, while the Industrial Goods (-7.0%) index declined. The Oil & Gas index remained unchanged.
Next week, we expect a mixed but mildly positive performance as investors stabilise positions following recent volatility. Furthermore, we anticipate that the release of October inflation data—where we expect further disinflation—will reinforce expectations of a rate cut later this month, thereby supporting overall market sentiment.
Money Market and Fixed Income
The OVN rate trended higher this week, rising by 13bps w/w to 24.9%, despite a notable improvement in system liquidity. The market received NGN3.63 trillion in OMO maturities, leaving the system at a net long position of NGN5.09 trillion (Previous: NGN4.39 trillion).
In the absence of any mop-up activity, we expect inflows from FGN bond coupon payments (NGN151.63 billion) to further support system liquidity, causing the OVN rate to stay around the current level.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded with bullish sentiments following the liquidity surplus. Consequently, the average yield across all instruments contracted by 35bps w/w to 19.3%. By segment, NTB yields fell by 41bps to 17.0%, while OMO yields declined by 51bps to 21.7%.
We expect the strong system liquidity to buoy sustained demand for bills, keeping yields depressed. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to conduct an NTB PMA next Wednesday (November 19) with NGN700.00 billion worth of bills on offer.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded with bullish sentiments driven by sustained demand from portfolio managers and PFAs. Consequently, the average yield declined by 20bps w/w to 15.6%. Across the curve, the average yield contracted at the short (-31bps) and mid (-23bps) segments following the demand for the FEB-2031 (-42bps) and APR-2032 (-54bps) bonds, respectively, but closed flat at the long end.
Similarly, we expect the robust liquidity position to sustain demand for bonds, exerting mild downward pressure on yields.
Foreign Exchange
The naira appreciated this week by 0.5% w/w to NGN1,435.00/USD, amid the USD50.00 million intervention from the CBN. Meanwhile, gross FX reserves increased for the seventeenth consecutive week, growing by USD187.11 million w/w to USD43.54 billion (November 13). In the forwards market, the naira rates depreciated across the 1-month (-0.2% to NGN1,470.81/USD), 3-month (-0.5% to NGN1,500.62/USD), 6-month (-0.1% to NGN1,591.12/USD) and 1-year (-0.2% to NGN1,727.58/USD) contracts.
We maintain a positive outlook on the naira, supported by expectations of sustained FX liquidity. On the domestic front, rising non-oil exports and improving market confidence should underpin inflows, while externally, healthy FX reserves, a positive current account position, and a firmer global monetary easing are expected to reinforce foreign investor sentiment and stimulate additional FX market inflows.
Cordros
