This week, we examine the Q3:2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). According to the statistics office, Nigeria’s real output grew by 4.0% y/y in Q3:2025, reflecting a slight moderation in growth momentum compared to the previous quarter (Q2-2025: 4.2%) but outperformed the comparable period a year ago (Q3-2024: 3.9%).
Nominal GDP reached ₦113.6tn, up from ₦96.2tn in Q3:2024, representing an 18.1% increase y/y, largely driven by price-level changes. From a structural perspective, the growth performance was jointly supported by the oil and non-oil sectors, though the contribution of oil (3.4% share) remains modest relative to the non-oil (96.6%) in the overall economy.
Specifically, the oil sector expanded by 5.8% y/y, supported by a declining but modest crude oil output performance. Notably, oil production averaged 1.64mbpd in Q3:2025, trailing 1.68mbpd recorded in Q2:2025, but above the 1.47mbpd reported in Q3:2024.
We note that the sector’s contribution to total GDP was 3.4% in Q3:2025, compared with 3.4% a year earlier and 4.1% in the previous quarter. Overall, the expansion in the oil sector reflects steady upstream production amidst ongoing efforts to curtail crude oil theft and maintain operational stability.
From a sectoral perspective, growth across the three primary sectors – agriculture, industry, and services – were healthy and largely even. Agricultural output expanded 3.8% y/y, reflecting gains from the main harvest season and cash & food crops export earnings growth fuelled by non-oil exports incentives. The industrial sector (excluding oil), grew by 3.2%, showing mixed momentum relative to the strong performance in the previous quarters.
Services grew by 4.2%, led by ICT, financial services, and real estate. Drilling further, trade and real estate – key constituents of the non-oil economy – recorded mixed performance in Q3:2025. Trade expanded modestly by 2.0%, supported by FX stability and improving consumer purchasing power. Real estate growth eased to 3.5% y/y from 3.8% in Q2:2025, reflecting weak demand in the value chain.
Collectively, these sectors remained important contributors to the non-oil economy, underpinning overall growth despite a moderation in some activities. While these figures point to continued economic growth, the moderation relative to Q2:2025 indicates slower momentum in key sectors, with industry in particular showing signs of deceleration. Nonetheless, growth remains heavily anchored on non-oil sectors, reflecting both the resilience and structural diversification of the Nigerian economy.
Looking ahead to Q4:2025, we estimate a base-case GDP growth range of 4.3% to 4.5%, underpinned by seasonal drivers – including late harvest cycle and stronger consumer spending associated with year-end festivities – should provide near-term support.
Improved FX supply and gradual softening of price pressure are also expected to lift business sentiment. However, the operating environment remains challenging. Uncertain crude oil output, fiscal constraints, heightened security concerns, and still-restrictive monetary conditions could limit the extent of the expansion, particularly through their impact on credit growth and investor confidence.
Afrinvest
