Nigeria’s crude oil production rose slightly in November to 1.436 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 1.401 million bpd in October, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Thursday.
Despite the uptick, Nigeria still failed to meet its assigned production quota by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the fourth consecutive month. OPEC data shows that Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, lower than the 1.481 million bpd recorded in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1.
The trend underscores ongoing struggles in stabilising production despite renewed investments and government efforts in the upstream sector.
OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) will need to maintain an average production level of 43 million barrels per day next year to balance global supply and demand—nearly the same volume produced last month.
This outlook contrasts with industry expectations of a potential supply surplus in 2026. Acknowledging the fragile market environment, key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia agreed last month to pause further output increases in the first quarter of next year after sharply ramping up supply earlier in 2025.
Nigeria’s continued inability to meet its quota poses risks for foreign exchange earnings, as crude oil remains its biggest revenue source. The ongoing rehabilitation of government-owned refineries, upcoming private refinery operations—particularly the Dangote Refinery—and renewed upstream investments could boost performance in 2026.
Still, experts note that security issues, crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and infrastructure limitations must be resolved for meaningful improvement.
