Nigeria’s trade with the United Kingdom plummeted by 25 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, despite higher values realised from the naira devaluation. This data comes from the latest foreign trade statistics report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The total trade between Nigeria and the UK fell from N602.36 billion in Q1 2023 to N451.45 billion in Q1 2024, marking a significant year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline of 25 per cent. Compared to the previous quarter (Q4 2023), where trade totaled N522.79 billion, there is a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) decrease of 14 per cent.
This sharp decline in Nigeria’s trade with the UK is concerning, particularly given the weak naira. Generally, a weaker naira would make Nigerian exports cheaper and more competitive internationally, theoretically boosting trade figures. However, the data suggests other factors are contributing to the decline.
A closer analysis reveals declines in both imports and exports. Nigeria’s imports from the UK decreased from N186.99 billion in Q4 2023 to N183.34 billion in Q1 2024, marking a 2 per cent Q-o-Q decline. However, year-on-year, imports increased by 25 per cent, up from N146.88 billion in Q1 2023.
The drop in exports was more substantial, dragging down the overall trade numbers. Export values fell from N335.8 billion in Q4 2023 to N268.11 billion in Q1 2024, showing a 20 per cent Q-o-Q decrease. Year-on-year, exports plummeted by 41 per cent, down from N455.48 billion in Q1 2023.
The UK was a major destination for re-exports, with NBS data indicating re-exports of N43.49 million in interchangeable tools, N2 million in articles of iron/steel, N1.97 billion in treating metal, N2.18 million in machines for voice, images or data, and N1.45 million in household articles in Q1 2024.
Food preparation items worth N1.8 billion were also exported to the UK.
Imports from the UK in Q1 2024 included N11.77 million worth of granite and N15.93 billion worth of heat exchange units.
During this period, the UK planned new economic and trade partnerships with Nigeria to create opportunities in sectors such as energy, legal, and financial services. This coincided with the UK emerging from a recession, as its GDP expanded by 0.6 per cent in Q1 2024, following a 0.3 per cent decline in Q4 2023. However, the UK economy became stagnant by April 2024, a challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party ahead of an election.
The UK’s struggle with recession aligns with its revised visa policies, particularly affecting international students. The UK introduced higher education reforms to curb “rip-off” degrees and ensure student visas are used for education rather than immigration. Additionally, overseas students not pursuing research degrees are now barred from bringing their families.
