Nigeria’s oil revenue performance deteriorated sharply in the third quarter of 2025 and missed budget expectations by a wide margin.
This reinforced concerns over the country’s fragile fiscal position, even as modest gains were recorded in actual receipts.
In the same vein, Nigeria’s total government expenditure fell significantly below projections in the third quarter of 2025, coming in at N8.03 trillion, 41.57 per cent short of the prorated quarterly budget estimate of N13.75 trillion.
Fresh data from the Budget Office of the Federation showed that gross oil revenue for the quarter stood at N4.87 trillion, far below the prorated quarterly projection of N12.76 trillion.
This represents a shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8%, underscoring the scale of the gap between projections and reality.
The development comes at a time when the federal government is contending with mounting debt service obligations, persistent fiscal deficits, and an urgent need to strengthen revenue mobilisation, particularly from non-oil sources through ongoing tax reforms and improved collection systems.
Under the 2025 fiscal framework, the government projected gross federally collectible revenue of N78.08 trillion, with oil expected to account for N51.05 trillion, representing 65.38% of total revenue.
