Nigeria is set to further benefit from rising foreign exchange inflows as global crude oil prices surge above $105 per barrel, driven by escalating Middle East tensions that have tightened supply expectations, boosting revenues and supporting naira stability.
With Brent crude trading above $105 per barrel, well above Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget benchmark of $64.85, the ongoing global oil rally is expected to significantly strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position, improve foreign exchange inflows, and support naira stability.
Analysts say that if geopolitical tensions escalate into a full-scale conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz – a critical passage for roughly 20 per cent of global crude shipments – oil prices could spike further to as high as $150 per barrel.
Such a scenario would deliver a major windfall for oil-exporting countries like Nigeria, potentially improving external reserves and boosting government revenue.
The recent price surge reflects growing geopolitical risk premiums, particularly linked to heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, a key Middle Eastern oil producer.
